NTT IndyCar Series Championship Predictions Four Races Out

Beginning of the last race of the 2017 season with Josef Newgarden in command as the field gets ready - 2 by 2 - entering Turn 11 at Sonoma Raceway for race start. Image Credit: Edmund Jenks (2017)

NTT IndyCar Series Championship Predictions Four Races Out

Predictions are a tricky business since this is always about placing odds on human outcomes. Variables are all over the map from driver talent and mistake performance involvement, equipment preparation and in-race support performance, track layout combined with prevailing weather, to the old adage of past performance is the best predictor of future performance and outcomes.

That being stated, there is a great portal for information about future chances that allow predictions to hit their mark much better than not. This portal is titled The Single Seater and the reason they are so good at what they do, they eliminate emotion as much as they can through mathematics ... statistics ... all that include the adage stated above.

Winner's Circle celebration as caught by NBCSN at 2:01:05 - from left to right is GoPro Grand Prix Of Sonoma race winner Simon Pagenaud being congratulated by 2017 NTT IndyCar Series Championship winner Josef Newgarden, Motorsports Journal Managing Editor Edmund Jenks, and NBCSN's Broadcaster Jon Beekhuis. Image Credit: NBCSN telecast via screengrab (2017)

This excerpted and edited from Single Seater -

State of the Championship: Assessing Newgarden’s Weak Spot
By: Drew Bennison - Aug. 8th, 2019

There are four races left in the IndyCar season. The finale at Laguna Seca has double points on offer, meaning there are at most 266 points available to any one driver. The Single Seater model currently has Newgarden in control of the championship with a 66.4% chance of winning the series title. Rossi has around a 30.9% chance of winning as he sits 16 points behind Newgarden, and Dixon and Pagenaud both hold a 1.3% chance of pulling off a late-season upset.

The helmet, gloves, and HANS device of Josef Newgarden just a minute before J-New puts them on for the final practice at the 2019 Acura Grand Prix Of Long Beach. The Team Penske driver finished this fourth race of the season P2 at about 20 seconds behind Alexander Rossi, his chief rival going into these final four races. Image Credit: Edmund Jenks (2019)

Newgarden holds the lead
Newgarden has led the points standings for most of the year thanks in no small part to his qualifying efforts. He has the second-best average starting position this year (5.8) just behind Rossi (5.5) and was the fifth most consistent qualifier as judged by average starting deviation. Newgarden qualifies for races incredibly well, but he doesn’t start races well at all. On average he loses -0.9 places in the first two laps of the race and has only retained his starting position on 54% of race starts. Ryan Hunter-Reay is the only driver in the top-10 of the points who retains his starting position at a worse rate. This could pose a threat in the final quarter of the season as two of the last four races are on road/street courses where passing is tougher. Giving up a good qualifying effort in the opening laps puts Newgarden at greater risk of getting involved in a crash or simply being unable to pass a championship rival back. Even on the ovals where it’s traditionally easier to overtake, giving up free track position obviously isn’t an ideal way to close out a tight championship battle.

Andretti Autosport celebrates its 200th win as a racing organization in the Long Beach Grand Prix Victory Circle. This mark was secured by Alexander Rossi as he won his second consecutive Acura Grand Prix Of Long Beach (2018 & 2019). Image Credit: Edmund Jenks (2019)

Rossi’s advantage
Rossi has been an even better qualifier than Newgarden with two pole positions and retains his starting position at a much higher rate than Newgarden — doing so 85% of the time. Attacking Newgarden’s weakness on the start is going to be a solid approach for Rossi to claw back the 16 point deficit. Newgarden is not a driver that makes a ton of mistakes in the race — his overly optimistic dive to Hunter-Reay’s inside on the last lap at Mid Ohio is not a move you’ll see him go for again — so being in front of him early is so important. All drivers are aggressive at the start of the race, but Rossi can be more tactfully aggressive since he knows Newgarden struggles in the first two laps. And what might be an even bigger advantage for Rossi is if Newgarden knows he struggles on starts, leading to out-of-character driving in an effort to retain his position that could cause him to make a mistake. Winning a championship is as much a mental game of keeping your concentration high as it is a physical battle on track.

So what could Newgarden do to improve this weakness in his profile? I’m not a driver coach, but I would think that taking some time in practice to simulate the start and running on cold tires could only serve to benefit him. His teammates both retain their starting position more than 75% of the time, so maybe they have some advice for their fellow driver too. With only four races left, it would do more harm than good to try to do much more and risk psyching himself out at race starts. It’ll be a problem to deal with in the off-season.

Chip Ganassi Racing's 5-time IndyCar Racing Series Champion takes the pre-race fan greet ride just as every other driver. Here Scott rides around with sunglasses and his PNC Bank hat on backwards as her tracks around infamous Turn 9 at the Acura Grand Prix Of Long Beach circuit. Vantage thanks to Doug Mockett, from his special trackside suite sponsored by Doug Mockett & Company - Fine Architectural Hardware. Image Credit: Edmund Jenks (2019) 

Pagenaud, Dixon round out the top-four
Pagenaud and Dixon are both longshots to win the title as they sit 47 and 62 points out of the championship lead. Their success in the title hunt is going to come down more to what mistakes Newgarden and Rossi make more than anything they can do. 

INDY 500 winner for 2019 had a hot hand at IMS winning everything the track had to offer - IndyCar Grand Prix and the INDY 500. Image Credit: Shawn Gritzmacher - NTT IndyCar Series (2019)

Pagenaud has actually been the luckiest driver this season already according to Expected Points. He is outperforming his xPoints through Mid Ohio by +72. That means he’s scored 72 more points than we would have expected him to as judged by his average track position in races. For example, in the Indy GP Pagenaud had an ATP of 6.6, led only five laps, and was in the top-five for just 41% of the race. We would have expected him to score 28.5 points that race (about a sixth-place finish) but instead he scored 51. We see drivers who overperform compared to their expected points for a stretch of time eventually regress back to the mean. This could be over the next couple of races or next season, we don’t know exactly. But if Pagenaud is really riding a somewhat lucky sequence of races, it could mean Dixon has a good shot of at least overtaking him in the points in these last four races if Pagenaud’s results start to line up with how he has been driving. Right now, our model has Pagenaud with an expected championship finishing position of 3.3 compared to Dixon’s 3.4.

Pocono is up next
In the 50,000 simulations we did of the last races of the IndyCar season, no other driver won the championship besides these four. Newgarden and Rossi head into Pocono with a combined 97% chance of winning the title. There have been just three oval races so far this year, but Newgarden has the edge over Rossi in average starting (6) and finishing (2) position on these types of tracks. He also scores better in ATP (4.2) and ATP25 (1.9). A good weekend at Pocono could give him some breathing room in the points, but it won’t be easy. Rossi has had a good start to his career at Pocono with two podiums including a win in three races there. Newgarden has two podiums and no wins in six attempts.

These aren’t huge sample sizes, and I’d say these guys are about even. Newgarden with the advantage at ovals this season and Rossi with the advantage at Pocono the past few years. A DNF from either Rossi or Newgarden would probably flip the championship odds from “lean Newgarden” to “likely Newgarden” or to “lean Rossi” depending on who DNFs, so Rossi has more to lose than Newgarden does when it comes to a strategy gamble or risky overtake opportunities. I expect both of these guys to play it relatively safe (no high-risk-low-reward moves like we saw with Newgarden at Mid Ohio) at Pocono with three races still to go after. Pagenaud and Dixon might try to shake up the race a bit with alternative strategies given their longshot status too.

The Current Championship Odds

“Expected Championship Position”
The Expected Championship Position for each driver is the average championship finishing position we would “expect” from a driver if the end of the season were repeated infinite times. It is useful to get a point estimate forecast for each driver.

Statistical Information & Image Credit: TheSingleSeater.com (2019)

[Reference Here]

Sitting on the sidelines is only fun when one is engaged and informed.

So, with four races remaining in the 2019 season - ABC Supply 500 at Pocono Raceway - Long Pond Pennsylvania, Bommarito Automotive Group 500 at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway - Madison Illinois, Grand Prix Of Portland at Portland International Raceway - Portland Oregon, Firestone Grand Prix of Monterey at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca - Monterey California it's GREEN, GREEN, GREEN and may the best of outcomes prevail for all, even if the odds strongly favor Team Penske's 2017 NTT Series Champion to chalk-up a number two for his career in the double-points race at Monterey.

... notes from The EDJE




TAGS: INDYCAR, POCONO, GATEWAY, PORTLAND, LAGUNA SECA, POINTS CHAMPIONSHIP, Newgarden, Rossi Dixon, Pagenaud, The EDJE 

Spoken word documentary "Racing Through the Forest" at Pebble Beach delivers a 'Must See'

Crowd of motor culture enthusiasts gather to see the premiere screening of “Racing Through the Forest – The History of the 1950-56 Pebble Beach Road Races”. Image Credit: Edmund Jenks (2014)

Spoken word documentary "Racing Through the Forest" at Pebble Beach delivers a 'Must See'

Boxes that contain photographs arranged in albums (not just images) of times shared in a lifetime are nothing more than just books with photos. It takes other humans who have courage, patience, acumen, and heart to attempt to capture context and tales associated with the lives and times of a bygone era so important to our modern day motor culture ... here, and throughout the world.

Race car driver, Rick Knoop is one such person who, with the support and talents of film-maker Dean Kirkland, Rick's wife Cydette Vikander Knoop, and the rest of the organization at K&K Productions, who stepped up to the challenge to bring forward the stories behind the images stored in book placed in a box then conducted and edited over 50 interviews, 100's of photos, and archive film into one 1 hour 16 minutes piece of informative movie entertainment.

Fred 'Frosty' Knoop as he appeared during an interview in the film presentation of "Racing Through the Forest" at Spanish Bay. Image Credit: Edmund Jenks (2014)

For those who may have been unfamiliar with Rick,  he is the son of Fred 'Frosty' Knoop who also happened to be a driver of sport cars while ranching, raising and judging horses in Northern California. Rick came by his skill through his DNA, in that Frosty raced sport cars in the formative years of modern road racing through the woods of the Monterey Peninsula.

For Rick's contribution to motor culture, as a driver, Rick consistently won and placed in the world’s most challenging and prestigious sports car races that include his victory at the 24 Hours of Le Mans to winning at Daytona.

Rick Knoop as he winds up the V8 engine of the 1972 Can Am McLaren M8F on the front straight of Mazda Raceway Laguna Seca during the 2014 Rolex Monterey Motorsports Reunion. Image Credit: Thomas Stahler (2014)

Today, Rick still straps on his similarly colored Bruno Junqueira helmet (or should this be stated the other way around) in an effort to keep alive race cars from past series so that the memory of these engineering marvels never fades.

Here, Rick moves from a qualifying position of 11 to finish on the podium in P3 at the 2014 Rolex Monterey Motorsports Reunion at Mazda Raceway Laguna Seca.

Movie Poster - Image Credit: Edmund Jenks (2014)

 This excerpted and edited from KSBW.com -

Pebble Beach race track remembered in 'Racing Through The Forest'
By Amy Larson - Aug 15, 2014 - UPDATED 11:48 AM PDT

"Racing Through The Forest," which premiered at The Inn at Spanish Bay in Pebble Beach on Wednesday during Monterey auto week. 

The film revealed never-before-seen footage of the Pebble Beach Road Races, held from 1950-1956.

Before there was Mazda Raceway Laguna Seca, young brilliant mechanics in California who had dreams of becoming race car drivers wanted to compete in their Jaguars, Ferraris, MGs, and Alfa Romeos, and they needed a place to race.

Photo of the track shown in the film presentation of "Racing Through the Forest" at Spanish Bay. Image Credit: Edmund Jenks (2014)

They chose 17 Mile Drive to be their dangerous track.

The public road had sharp turns and dramatic elevation drops. Del Monte Forest's dense pine trees lined the road and created a strobe light effect. Dark shadows from the trees sharply contrasted against a bright white sky, and the visual effect distracted drivers.
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The 1950s is now considered the romantic time of American racing, before the sport became a business for car manufacturers and competition between athletes for sponsors. The Pebble Beach Road Race's entry fee was $15, and drivers were only semi-professional because sports car racing was just being born in America.

Graphic of the original track layout as shown in the film presentation of "Racing Through the Forest" at Spanish Bay. Image Credit: Edmund Jenks (2014)

Each race, the men behind the wheel got better, the pits become more innovative with designs, and some drivers went on to become world champions (In 1961, Phil Hill became the first American to win the Formula One World Drivers' Championship. Carroll Shelby went on to win the 24 Hours of Le Mans in 1959 and design Shelby Cobra and Shelby Ford Mustangs).
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Crowds of fans were nine-people deep along some parts of the Del Monte Forest track, and the only barriers between fans and the track were a few bales of hay. There was always an undercurrent of adrenaline and danger, fans said.

Crowds and the track as a Triumph TR2 misses a corner as shown in the film presentation of "Racing Through the Forest" at Spanish Bay. Image Credit: Edmund Jenks (2014)

Pebble Beach's race track ended in tragedy, when driver Ernie McAfee crashed a Ferrari into a tree and died instantly. A race in Pebble Beach never happened again.

Mazda Raceway Laguna Seca was built on Fort Ord in 1957 and became the modern day successor.

The goal behind making "Racing Through The Forest" was to unearth what these pioneering, fearless young drivers did in the 1950s and gather film footage that would otherwise be lost over time. The film was written and directed by filmmaker Dean Kirkland and produced by renowned race car driver Rick Knoop.
[Reference Here]

Invited guests watch the screening of "Racing Through the Forest" at Spanish Bay. Here, Bill Pollack imparts some memories in the movie as Bill Pollack (end of front row) watches. Image Credit: Edmund Jenks (2014) 

This seminal set of races also placed in motion the process of finding lighter, faster, more powerful, nimble cars from around the world and helped to fashion a racing resource template used today that has its motor culture roots firmly based in the forest around Pebble Beach.

"What began as a tribute to my father, Fred Knoop, has evolved into a celebration of one of the world’s greatest road races," Rick Knoop said at the Spanish Bay movie premiere. "We’re thrilled to share this incredible story with audiences at the Pebble Beach Concours. It is a privilege to have the opportunity to explore this incredible history, especially just feet from the road where the men and machines did battle."

Rick Knoop and Dean Kirkland delivered on the promise these photographs stored in an album and held in a box to be brought back to life with heart in a way an image could never do ... through film.

A must see film where the heart of the making of the presentation comes through in every frame and leaves an indelible and permanent impression.

... notes from The EDJE



TAGS: Rick Knoop, Cydette Vikander Knoop, Dean Kirkland, Fort Ord, Fred 'Frosty' Knoop, MAZDA Raceway Laguna Seca, Monterey Peninsula, Motor Culture, Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance, Road Races, Spanish Bay, The EDJE, K & K PRODUCTIONS

The Greatest Manufacturer Influence In Motorsports? MAZDA, Really ... MAZDA!

MAZDASPEED Motorsport Supported Series - Open Or Closed include; American Le Mans, Grand American Rolex GT, Grand American, Koni Challenge, SPEED World Challenge, Mazda MX-5 Cup, Spec Miata, Atlantic Championship, Star Mazda, Skip Barber, and Karting. Caption and Image Credit: MAZDASPEED Motorsports

The Greatest Manufacturer Influence In Motorsports? MAZDA, Really ... MAZDA!

To the casual motorsports observer, it is easy to overlook the influence and participation automobile manufacturers have in the pursuit of motorsports and to what extent they shape and form activities that capture our attention on TV or our local track.

Once one learns how to drive, the concept of motosports competition crosses ones mind and, to some, becomes an obsession. For most, just beating someone off of the line at a green light on an everyday street is as deep as this interest goes, but for others, this obsession grows ... first by watching a major race like the INDY 500 or an international broadcast of the Formula 1 race from the Principality of Monaco to actually taking a car out on a track for a spin ... at speed.

We may first think about the manufacturer of a particular car as it relates to motorsports when we begin to recognize what the nameplate on the car is of our favorite driver. NASCAR is famous for sporting a manufacturers name on the cars they race, even though the cars they drive have almost nothing to do with the actual car one would see on any city or country street ... anywhere.

The cars that NASCAR use for competition are built from the ground up with tubular metal framing for the chassis, a combination of sheet metal and composite fiber outer panels for the body skin and decals located for where the head and tail lights are supposed to be. The names of Toyota, Ford, Chevy, Dodge adorn the cars but very little in the way of actual production vehicles are really a part of the process.

In other, more sophisticated forms of motorsports found on the racing venues around the world, automobile manufacturers do, in fact, give direct support with engineering, engine development, and actual platform creation development, and support. However, no other automobile manufacturer participates directly in the creation and development of competitive racing series, driver development and training around the world more than ... MAZDA.

At the beginning of this summer's racing season, the largest gathering of MAZDA motorsports racing series drivers from all of the supported series (pictured here at New Jersey Motorsports Park, June 2009) - Mazda is the brand of choice for road-racers across North America. More than 9,000 grassroots racers compete in various classes with the Sports Car Club of America (SCCA) and the National Auto Sport Association (NASA). Racers who are years away from earning a driver's license can now begin their professional motorsports careers in the Mazda family. A driver can begin in karts and progress through the Skip Barber series, Club Racing Formula Mazda, professional Star Mazda and finally to Formula Atlantic, all with Mazda. No other car company has ever connected the dots this way. Caption and Image Credit: MAZDASPEED Motorsports

This excerpted and edited from the MAZDASPEED Motorsports Development website -

On any given weekend, there are more Mazdas on the road-race tracks of America than any other brand of vehicle. At the track, you'll see MX-5 Miata, RX-8, MAZDA 3, MAZDA 6, RX-7 and other vintage Mazda models competing, because every Mazda has the Soul of a Sports Car. In fact, the fastest growing road-racing class in the U.S. is the SCCA's Spec Miata class, with nearly 1,500 first- and second-generation Miatas tearing up America's racetracks, making it the most-raced production car in the world. Mazda's involvement in motorsports extends to its relationship with Mazda Raceway Laguna Seca, one of the world's premier road-racing circuits, and the Skip Barber Schools for driving and racing.

Over the past decade, Mazda has developed an increasingly strong presence at road racing tracks around the nation. At the 2007 Mobil 1 Twelve Hours of Sebring festivities, Mazda is represented in five of the eight races, and six of the thirteen different classes of cars, more than any other brand including Porsche, Ferrari, General Motors, Ford, Dodge, Toyota and Honda.

Mazda supports anyone who’s racing his or her Mazda in any sanctioned racing event in the U.S. or Canada. Mazda supports all types of racing, whether Road Racing, Rally, Drag, Off-Road or Autocross, as long as your event is sanctioned by a real racing organization and provides some kind of published racing results. You need to be a member of the MAZDASPEED Motorsports Racing support program to purchase parts or receive support.

Mazda North American Operations provides racing support in North America through MAZDASPEED MOTORSPORTS DEVELOPMENT. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., Mazda North American Operations oversees the sales, marketing, parts and customer service support of Mazda vehicles in the United States, Canada and Mexico through nearly 900 dealers. Operations in Canada are managed by Mazda Canada, Inc., located in Ontario, Canada, and in Mexico by Mazda Motor de Mexico in Mexico City.
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MAZDASPEED Motorsports factory-engineered vehicles, performance parts and accessories, and motorsports programs are the ultimate expression of our "Always the Soul of a Sport Car" spirit. MAZDASPEED is the destination for driving enthusiasts who desire to experience Mazda at the highest, most exhilarating level. Video Credit: gorotary

MAZDA CONNECTS THE DOTS FOR NORTH AMERICAN MOTORSPORTS LADDER

Up-and-coming race drivers have two major challenges: winning on the track, and finding the resources to move up to the next level. Mazda in conjunction with series corporate partners is making the second task significantly easier for this year's champion drivers. Mazda will provide a next-level, fully-funded ride in a Mazda powered car to the 2007 champions of selected Mazda series.

“We are committed to developing the next generation of racers with a ladder system that provides drivers with Mazda and Mazda-powered open and closed-wheel cars throughout their careers,” said Robert Davis, Senior Vice President, Product Development and Quality, and the man responsible for Mazda's North American motorsports operations under the MAZDASPEED Motorsports Development banner. “Similar to our contingency program, these are performance-based rewards. Too often the cost of racing has meant that a promising career has stagnated due to a lack of budget. With this initiative, Mazda changes that.”
Reference Here>>


For more information on a specific series, visit:

www.atlantic-championship.com

www.scca.com

www.mx-5cup.com

www.starmazda.com

www.skipbarber.com

... notes from The EDJE